Home > America, John McCain, Obama > Prediction: McCain wins by a 51.3% majority.

Prediction: McCain wins by a 51.3% majority.

Of course, I’ll be happy to be correct just on the part about McCain winning.

I think I’m feeling particularly confident in my predictions this election season for three reasons:

1. Unlike 2004, I’ve got access to a lot of inside information.

2. I haven’t been wrong yet in any of my predictions. For example, I predicted in my article “Obamyth Threshold” that Obama’s support would fall apart shortly after the conventions.

3. Sarah Palin.


What’s your prediction?

Categories: America, John McCain, Obama
  1. gregg
    September 15, 2008 at 6:14 pm

    mccain by 53.4

  2. September 15, 2008 at 8:34 pm

    I’ve been saying since the end of the primaries that the final total will have McCain up by 5% in the popular vote. I guess that puts me at McCain with 52.5%.

  3. Scott P.
    September 16, 2008 at 7:04 pm

    I heard two things recently. One, that with the current polling data, Obama would lose the popular vote but win the electoral vote, much like the Bush/Gore line-up in 2000. Two, rumors are already starting that Biden will drop-off the ticket (he will leave, not be eliminated by Obama) and Hillary re-enters as the VP on the ticket totally throwing the popular vote majority back to Obama. What do you think?

  4. fredshelm
    September 17, 2008 at 2:49 am

    Scott, both are wrong. The first assumes all toss-up states currently leaning Obama go his favor. Given that all (literally all) poll-to-vote discrepancy trends are against him, this is extremely unlikely. Two, we aren’t really sure what would happen if Hillary replaced Biden. The only thing we can be sure of is that it would be embarrassing for Obama to have to correct a mistake so publicly.

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