I’ve been gone for over two years. When Obama was elected, I thought all hope was lost. Then the tea party happened. What a great way to be proven wrong.
Obama seems irritated, apathetic, and to have a strange restlessness to him (consider his absolute inability to stick with any particular message). It just so happens that these are common symptoms of drug addiction withdrawal – particularly cocaine. Some sufferers also report having strange repetitive dreams.
Obama admitted to cocaine use in his first autobiographical book. A friend of mine asked me recently how we knew he ever stopped. I suppose we don’t know if he ever did.
But, for sake of argument, let’s give him the benefit of the doubt. Let’s assume that Obama did stop snorting cocaine. How long would the side effects last? Depending on how much he abused it, potentially YEARS.
Cocaine disrupts the body’s ability to absorb dopamine and other functions. In some situations, the effects can be permanent. It makes you wonder just how much his cocaine use affected him and in which ways. It also makes you wonder just much effect cocaine has over the most powerful office in the world – and our lives.
Of course, I’ll be happy to be correct just on the part about McCain winning.
I think I’m feeling particularly confident in my predictions this election season for three reasons:
1. Unlike 2004, I’ve got access to a lot of inside information.
2. I haven’t been wrong yet in any of my predictions. For example, I predicted in my article “Obamyth Threshold” that Obama’s support would fall apart shortly after the conventions.
3. Sarah Palin.
What’s your prediction?
Much ado has been made over the “Bradley Effect” and how it will affect the election come November. While I think the Bradley Effect will come into play, I believe it will overshadowed by a larger incongruity between the polls and actual votes – a phenomenon I call the “Obama Effect”.
From New Hampshire on, primary after primary showed Obama a few points higher in the polls than the actual number of votes he received. Most pundits and commentators rushed in to declare it to be the revival of the dreaded Bradley Effect. While I don’t doubt that the Bradley Effect played some role, the bulk of this incongruity can be attributed to late deciders – people changing their minds within the last 24 hours before the actual vote – rejecting Obama.
To explain this, I posit the following theory:
1. Part of the Obama campaign’s success has been his “cool” factor and numerous celebrity endorsements.
2. Some voters, not having done much research at the time they were being polled, merely defaulted on Obama’s name since he had been put out there so often as the “cool” candidate, but, shortly before voting, researched both candidates and changed their minds.
3. Some voters merely didn’t want to seem uncool when polled, and so lied to the pollster.
4. Some voters originally did intend to vote for Obama based on his “cool” factor, but, as the primary day neared, the importance of the election weighed more heavily on their minds and ultimately dissuaded them from voting for someone so inexperienced.
In essence, it can be described as voter procrastination in regards to thinking. Some voters answer pollsters before they do research, before the weight of the importance of the election hits them, and before they’ve fully thought through their decision. I call this voter irregularity, which we observed so often in the primaries, the Obama Effect.
Experience is stronger in the ballot booth than in the polls.
Obama just compared Sarah Palin to a pig when he said, “You can put lipstick on a pig, but it’s still a pig”.
Naturally, any decent human being would be outraged by such a statement. It’s understandable to get angry and call for McCain to respond with equal vitriol in a snappy response to Obama. Understandable, but would it be smart? No.
Try looking back a few months ago. Obama was up in the polls, still enjoying his post-nomination bounce, while McCain seemed to be struggling to keep up. Obama released a myriad of unfair attacks against McCain daily. If there was one cry in the Republican party, it was, “John, fight back!” But John McCain never responded in kind.
Now, McCain is on top in a dominating position with a powerfully transformative new VP at his side. What happened?
1. Palin. McCain tricked Obama into picking a weak vp by forcing the experience argument. McCain then turned around and picked a strong vp by comparison.
2. Little jabs. Ads like “The One” and “Celebrity” were little jabs at Obama, not big attacks, but they developed a theme. They eroded Obama’s lead to nil going into the conventions.
3. Overexposure. According to pew research, 48% of Americans feel they are hearing too much about Obama. Compare that to only 26% who feel the same about McCain. Incidentally, Obama’s biggest selling point was his “newness”. By allowing Obama to hog the spotlight, McCain let Obama to undercut his own message.
None of these strategies required McCain to make a large public attack on Obama, and they WORKED.
With the race effectively changed forever by the introduction of Sarah Palin, the new Republican strategy will look like this:
1. McCain will highlight Obama’s, the Media’s and the far-left’s attacks on Palin, but they won’t allow it to become a central theme of their campaign. Palin is not a victim, and the McCain campaign isn’t going to market her as such. Nevertheless, drawing attention to the some of the most outrageous attacks on her, especially ones that can be traced to Obama, will expose the intellectual and emotional weakness of his ideology.
2. Little jabs. Expect a continuation of this theme from the pre-Palin election cycle.
3. Limit Palin’s direct exposure. The American public is hungry to learn more about Palin. McCain will keep this hunger in suspense, and not risk making Obama’s error, by controlling the venues that Palin speaks in. This will keep the excitement she now enjoys high through election day.
4. September/October surprise. Sorry, can’t talk about this one in detail. Let me just say this – Obama’s got something big coming his way, and he’s not going to like it. McCain and Palin are just getting started.
I understand the impulse to attack back against the slanders coming towards the world’s most famous mother of five, but one must remember – the real goal and best possible response for McCain and Palin is to win.