Home > America, Obama, Obama Effect > The Obama Effect

The Obama Effect

Much ado has been made over the “Bradley Effect” and how it will affect the election come November. While I think the Bradley Effect will come into play, I believe it will overshadowed by a larger incongruity between the polls and actual votes – a phenomenon I call the “Obama Effect”.

From New Hampshire on, primary after primary showed Obama a few points higher in the polls than the actual number of votes he received. Most pundits and commentators rushed in to declare it to be the revival of the dreaded Bradley Effect. While I don’t doubt that the Bradley Effect played some role, the bulk of this incongruity can be attributed to late deciders – people changing their minds within the last 24 hours before the actual vote – rejecting Obama.

To explain this, I posit the following theory:

1. Part of the Obama campaign’s success has been his “cool” factor and numerous celebrity endorsements.
2. Some voters, not having done much research at the time they were being polled, merely defaulted on Obama’s name since he had been put out there so often as the “cool” candidate, but, shortly before voting, researched both candidates and changed their minds.
3. Some voters merely didn’t want to seem uncool when polled, and so lied to the pollster.
4. Some voters originally did intend to vote for Obama based on his “cool” factor, but, as the primary day neared, the importance of the election weighed more heavily on their minds and ultimately dissuaded them from voting for someone so inexperienced.

In essence, it can be described as voter procrastination in regards to thinking. Some voters answer pollsters before they do research, before the weight of the importance of the election hits them, and before they’ve fully thought through their decision. I call this voter irregularity, which we observed so often in the primaries, the Obama Effect.

Experience is stronger in the ballot booth than in the polls.

Categories: America, Obama, Obama Effect
  1. BA
    September 14, 2008 at 7:53 pm

    A fair number of people do “lie” to pollsters for a variety of reasons. How many? No reliable polls are available on this.

  2. fredshelm
    September 14, 2008 at 8:09 pm

    Absolutely. We can only track the history of polling and weigh the conditions against the results to find trends.

  3. Steedeo
    September 28, 2008 at 1:34 pm

    Obama is not a US citizen. A motion has been filed against obama and
    the DNC in Phildelphia by Mr. Berg, attorney.

    Check out this web page please:


  1. No trackbacks yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: